Paper short abstract:

Four states are predominant coffee producers in Mexico, one of the largest producers globally. Given geographical particularities, climate change is likely to affect them differentially. In turn, socioeconomic and agricultural differences will determine their vulnerability and adaptation ability.

Paper long abstract:

Coffee in Mexico, one of the ten largest producers globally, is predominantly produced in the south-eastern states of Chiapas, Veracruz, Puebla, and Oaxaca, although half of the states have some production. Coffee plantations cover some 3.3% of the cultivated surface of the country and generate about 1.3% of the annual agricultural revenue. Given their topography and exposure to two oceans, climate change models project different scenarios for each state that could result in different potential productivity of coffee and of agriculture in general. Mexican coffee production has focused in higher value specialty and organic coffees, which preclude various practices that could aid in adaptation to some consequences of climate change. The economic and developmental situation of the coffee-producing states, and communities, varies from almost exclusively agrarian to diversified industrialized economies, which in turn provides different capacities of adaptation to climate change during the present century.