Paper short abstract:

In Ethiopia concern is mounting concerning the potential impacts of climate change on coffee and the 4.5 million livelihoods it supports. This paper examines the prospects for, and barriers to, developing governance arrangements which support climate resilience in the sector.

Paper long abstract:

In Ethiopia, the home of Arabica coffee, concern is growing about the potential impact of climate change on the crop and the 4.5 million livelihoods it supports. Coffee Arabica usually grows at altitudes between 1600-2100m in semi-forested agro-forestry systems. The species has a relatively narrow envelope of climatic suitability and modelling studies by Davis et al. (2012) suggests that the area of bioclimatically suitable space of Coffee Arabica in Ethiopia could decline between ~38-90%, depending on the emissions scenario. Developing governance structures which can reduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity among farmers is imperative. By assessing the political economy of the coffee sector against the principles of resilience this paper aims to assess the barriers to and prospects for governing a resilient coffee sector in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Climate Resilient Green Economy is then reviewed briefly before a rich multi-level description of the political economy of Coffee sector is provided. The paper draws on existing literature and a series of individual and group interviews with farmers and decision-makers around Yayu biosphere reserve and in relevant Regional and Federal offices. The analysis highlights three key areas that require attention: The incentives for farmers to grow high shade coffee, the dysfunctionality of local markets and the on-going protection for protected forests for genetic conservation.