Paper short abstract:

This paper asks what does uncertainty mean in these contexts, and what do people living at the margins in India make of it.

Paper long abstract:

In environmentally dynamic settings of the global South, uncertainty is a norm rather than an aberration. The wetlands of Sundarbans, the largest mangrove delta in Asia, face the challenge of devastating cyclones, erosion, and sinking land mass. In contrast, Kutch, which is the second largest dryland tract in India, is at the heart of drought and desertification. In both these settings, people have coped and lived with these changes through generations. In fact, their livelihood strategies, agrarian practices and local traditions are firmly bound to these uncertainties. These range from river fishing in risky waters of the Sunderbans to seasonality and migrant pastoralism in Kutch.

This paper asks what does uncertainty mean in these contexts, and how does is manifest itself in the lives of people? Living in a context, which is uncertain, dynamic and changing rapidly- changes that are only exacerbated by the effects of climate change in recent times - this paper highlights the significance of plural episteme(s) from 'below' that need to be integrated with current climate science and policy thinking. Through a comparative analysis of these two settings, this paper demonstrates the everyday predicaments and strategies of people who have lived, and continue to live with uncertainties in these dynamic settings. These range from invoking traditions to reading signals of nature. It shows how local people understand and make climate, and how such understanding interacts with other drivers of change.