Paper short abstract:

The paper draws on ongoing research in India (dryland Kutch, Sunderbans and the mega coastal city Mumbai) to analyse diverse discourses and practices of climate change and uncertainty from ‘below’ and from ‘above.’

Paper long abstract:

The paper's starting point is that while uncertainty debates in climate change have emerged as a 'monster' or 'super wicked problem' for scientists and policy makers alike, quantitative assessments and models (usually based on probabilities ) remain at the heart of the scientific method. But do these factor in the lived realities of local people women and men especially in the global South? A rich ethnographic literature (not necessarily on climate change) has meticulously captured the everyday realities of uncertainty and the multiple coping mechanisms that people at the margins deploy to make sense of, live with and adapt to uncertainty and its effects on their livelihoods and lifestyles. How can these perspectives make their way into the narratives and the discourses of "above" - the experts, modellers, climate scientists and the epistemic communities? Also do models capturing uncertainty in climate change take into account issues concerning a wider political economy and macro-economic and political changes which, in the short term at least, can have effects that may be more drastic than climate change (e.g. land and water grabs, changes in technology etc). The paper draws on ongoing research in India (dryland Kutch, Sunderbans and the mega coastal city Mumbai) to analyse diverse discourses and practices of climate change and uncertainty from 'below' and from 'above' and how they interact in diverse empirical settings. It explores ways to bridge the different perspectives of uncertainty in order to foster socially just ways of dealing with uncertainties and social transformation.