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- Convenor:
-
Christian Wagner
(German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
- Location:
- 22F68
- Start time:
- 25 July, 2014 at
Time zone: Europe/Zurich
- Session slots:
- 3
Short Abstract:
The panel will look at new societal, domestic, regional, and international developments and their impact on national foreign policies and the process of decision making in South Asian countries.
Long Abstract:
The panel will look into the changing dynamics of South Asian countries and their respective foreign policies. Democracy, economic growth and new security perceptions have changed the dynamics of foreign policy in South Asia. In India, states like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal had an important impact on foreign policy decision making of the Indian government vis-à-vis the respective neighbours. In Pakistan, the most favoured Nation States that was granted to India in 2012 may change the domestic dynamics and the policy towards India in the long term perspective. Countries like China have increased their cooperation with India and her neighbours in recent years.
This raises the question in how far new societal, domestic and international changes will affect national foreign policies and the process of decision making in South Asian countries.
The panel will welcome contributions that deal with the different aspects of foreign policy in South Asian countries, i.e. foreign policy analysis of individual countries, the impact of international norms (human rights, non-proliferation), role of external powers in South Asia, or the impact of transnational actors/diasporas.
Accepted papers:
Session 1Christian Wagner (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
Paper short abstract:
Asia will remain the main reference frame for India's foreign policy in the next decade. India lacks a coherent foreign policy vision but follows different strategies in the Asian sub-regions. India's engagement in Asia is nurtured by security concerns vis-à-vis China and its own development needs.
Paper long abstract:
Asia is shaped by growing economic interdependence as well as by a variety of old and new security challenges ranging from great power rivalries to religious sectarianism. India has to concentrate its scarce foreign policy resources towards Asia in the midterm perspective. China is the elephant in the room but India's strategy vis-à-vis Asia is also shaped by its domestic economic priorities. West and Central Asia are important regions for India's energy supplies, East and South East Asia have become economically and politically more important regions since India's Look East Policy after 1994. India's growing participation in the different regional organizations underlines some of the achievements. The paper will look at the different strategies and foreign policy initiatives vis-à-vis the different Asian sub-regions (excluding South Asian) after the 1991.
Bhumitra Chakma (The University of Hull)
Paper short abstract:
How significant is the 'India factor' in shaping Bangladesh foreign policy? This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the India factor in Bangladesh foreign policy in the context of the theoretical debate between Innenpolitik and Aussenpolitik schools of thought.
Paper long abstract:
Analysts of Bangladesh foreign policy in general agree that the 'India factor' plays an important role in the dynamics of Bangladesh foreign policy. But exactly how significant is India in shaping the country's foreign policy? This paper attempts to locate the 'India factor' as a source of Bangladesh foreign policy and provides an in-depth analysis how historically this factor has shaped Bangladesh's foreign policy behaviour.
The analysis is presented contextualising the theoretical debate in International Relations between the two schools of thought, namely the Innenpolitik and the Aussenpolitik schools of thought. The former school argues that domestic factors are the key sources of a state's foreign policy behaviour, while the latter argues the opposite. The paper also considers whether foreign policy is basically a two-level game.
Amina Khan (Institute of Strategic Studies (ISSI) Islamabad)
Paper short abstract:
With the post-2014 era approaching in Afghanistan & ithe ncreasingly hostile Pak-Afghan relations, the future of Afghanistan remains uncertain & presents a grave security challenge to the region. In such a scenario Pakistan has yet to formulate an Afghan policy & follows a policy marred in ambiguity .
Paper long abstract:
2014 has been announced as the year of US-led NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. With the 12 year long war coming to an inconclusive end, the future of Afghanistan remains increasingly uncertain & presents a grave security challenge for the region particularly Pakistan. There is no denying that over the past 12 years the gap in mistrust along with the continuous blame game between Pakistan & Afghanistan has been increasing on both sides along with the recent spate of border clashes putting further strain on the already hostile relations between both states. Apart from issues that challenges the future of Afghanistan on a national front, increasing Pakistan- Indian rivalry with one another as well as in & over Afghanistan is one of the biggest obstacles to peace in Afghanistan as well as in the region. Hence in such a scenario, despite having suffered the realities of the Soviet occupation, subsequent withdrawal & its aftermath, Pakistan has yet to formulate an 'afghan policy' within the context of its national objectives to safeguard itself from the possible challenges & threats that will emanate from Afghanistan post 2014. If anything, Pakistan's policy towards Afghanistan has & continues to be vague, perplexed, conflicting & shrouded in ambiguity. Therefore it is imperative that policy makers in Pakistan formulate policies & strategies that are mutually beneficial for Pakistan, Afghanistan & the regional states
Chacko Philip (University of Liège)
Paper short abstract:
This paper will look at how China, with its increasing influence and co-operation in South Asia, is helping various regional states to adjust their foreign policy behavior in accordance to the changing regional and international order and is acting as a balancer in the region’s foreign policy dynamics.
Paper long abstract:
South Asia's strategic position, its complex history and the presence of two rival nuclear powers makes it one of the most vulnerable and important regions in international politics. The long lasting rivalry between India and Pakistan has for more than 60 years dominated the region's foreign policy. Traditionally, the US and India have been the two major players that has greatly influenced the South Asian security and politics. However, over the last decade, the region has witnessed a growing Chinese presence and influence. While many in India and the US regard China as a spoiler in the region, China's common land borders with several states in South Asia including, Bhutan, India, Pakistan and Nepal and its increasing geopolitical clout make China's ventures in the region very significant. In addition, China has over the years strengthened its cooperation with various regional states in all the important domains (economic, political, military and strategic), resulting in the emergence of a "Chinese Sphere of Influence" in South Asia extending from Pakistan to Nepal passing through the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
This paper intends to look at how China's presence and influence in the region are altering the conduct of various South Asian states, providing them with enough margin of maneuverability to reformulate and realign certain aspects of their foreign policies, thereby playing the role of a balancer in the region's complex geopolitics.
Tatiana Shaumyan (Institute of Oriental Studies RAS)
Paper short abstract:
The aggravation of the situation in the Afghanistan after withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO troops could become a serious factor in the destabilization of the situation inside India and on its borders. India’s role in Afghanistan after 2014 needs to be carefully considered by Indian policy makers.
Paper long abstract:
In anticipation of withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan, analysts and political scientists are discuss the future of this country, the prospects for the development of the situation in the region and the role of neighboring and adjacent countries and great powers. The departure of the coalition forces can lead to unpredictable consequences and chaos in Afghanistan. Much will depend if ruling political forces be able to reach a compromise between the Taliban and the North Alliance of Afghanistan. Special attention should be given to an analysis of the role and place of India, whose relations with Afghanistan have a long history.
For a multi-national, multi-confessional India, the aggravation of the situation in the adjacent Afghanistan could become a serious factor in the destabilization of the situation inside the country and on its borders. Pakistan is not without reason has accused by India that its territory was carried out infiltration across the line of control in Jammu and Kashmir militants for terrorist acts on Indian territory, and a significant part of them - Afghan Mujahedeen. Therefore, the prospect of coming to power in Afghanistan the Islamic extremists of the movement "Taliban" by definition cannot but cause concern Delhi in view of the action of the Islamic factor in India.
With the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan India may play a greater role in assisting Afghanistan in whatever way possible. India's role in Afghanistan after 2014 needs to be carefully considered by Indian policy makers.
Bishnu Raj Upreti (Nepal Centre for Contemporary Research)
Paper short abstract:
The paper examines the dynamics of engagement of powerful foreign bilateral actors in Nepal's armed conflict and post-conflict political transition and their impacts in state building and foreign policy.
Paper long abstract:
The paper examines the dynamics of engagement of influential foreign bilateral actors (especially US, India, China, UK, Switzerland, and Germany) and European Union in Nepal's armed conflict and post-conflict political transition and their impacts in state building and foreign policy. While examine the dynamics of engagement, the paper will look on the arguments (human rights, humanitarian issues democracy, peace and development) of foreign actors. The paper will specifically examine the two aspects, i.e. their engagement at the time of armed conflict, and post peace agreement period. As some of the activities of the foreign actors were sharply criticized by media, academics, civil society and political parties referring as interference in the domestic politics, this paper will also examine the responses of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Nepal on certain issues of foreign engagement specifically contested at public. The paper concludes that domination of foreign engagement in state's peace policies is inevitable but it can be manage amicably through concerted efforts of civil society, government, political parties and foreign diplomatic mission for the mutual benefits of both parties.
Shazia Wülbers (University of Applied Sceinces Bremen)
Paper short abstract:
My paper would analyse the framework of multilateral democracy promotion and test its applicability to the case study of Afghanistan where India and the European Union can be partners.
Paper long abstract:
Multilateral Democracy Promotion by the EU in Afghanistan with India as a Partner
Politically unstable region can be a seedbed for collective violence that poses security risk not only to neighbouring but also to distant regions of the world thereby justifying the need for external civilian and military intervention to control and check the spill over of conflicts. The research question that drives this paper is how the European Union can contribute to democracy promotion by developing a multilateral framework which involves active participation not only from the EU but also from the countries of the region like India for democracy promotion efforts in Afghanistan. This paper strives to find out what the preconditions and mechanisms for effective and legitimate multilateral democracy promotion are and if such a multilateral framework would be viable in the Afghan case. Its purpose is to develop a theoretical framework for multilateral democracy promotion. It will take as its starting point the state of art of the approaches to democracy promotion that have already been developed for the EU by Knod and Junemann, Young etc that dominate the field and will go on to explore the significance of a multilateral democracy promotion in normative and institutional terms for the Afghan case with India as a partner.
Constantino Xavier (Johns Hopkins University)
Paper short abstract:
This paper explores the causes and challenges of the changing balance of power between India's federal government and its regional states with reference to five recent foreign policy case studies.
Paper long abstract:
This paper reviews the causes and challenges of the new balance of power between India's federal government and its regional states in matters of foreign policy. After an initial comparative and historical background, it argues that six actor drive the states' new interest and influence: a) the advent of complex coalition politics; b) economic reforms and new growth distribution; c) the politicization and democratization of external affairs; d) the regionalization of central bureaucratic cadres; e) the new regional diaspora politics and economics; and c) rising cross-border interdependence in South Asia. In order to address this imbalance and ensure an efficient policy-making process even while not compromising on the democratic and federal quality of India's political regime, this leads to five challenges: a) develop a genuinely public, but non-governmental policy expertise; b) improve inter-ministerial coordination, public diplomacy and political strategy-making; c) the increasing bureaucratic temptation to justify external policy postures with reference to domestic obstacles; d) a balance between excessive centralization and excessive diffusion of the decision-making process; and e) inclusion of new regional stakeholders without compromising on expediency and capacity.
The paper illustrates these dynamics with reference to five recent foreign policy case studies in India: the legislative opposition to a new nuclear liability bill; the opening of the retail industry to greater FDI; the veto imposed by the Chief Minister of West Bengal on a transboundary river sharing agreement with Bangladesh; and the mobilization of Tamil regional parties to denounce human rights abuses in Sri Lanka and influence India's UN voting behavior.