Paper short abstract:

External factors such as foreign aid can shape developing-country political settlements. By using a new conceptualisation that emphasizes contestation between incumbents and challengers we can investigate the mechanisms, types and ethical implications of aid influence over recipient settlements.

Paper long abstract:

Political settlements analysis has highlighted the role of powerful political and economic actors in shaping institutional outcomes across countries. Its focus on national elites, however, risks biasing this type of theorizing towards local factors, when in fact many policy domains in developing countries have become transnationalized: much like private finance or transnational activism, foreign aid can play a significant role in shaping political settlements, for instance those underlying public finance management or basic service delivery. This paper has three aims. First, it revises the basic concept of political settlement with a combination of field theory and contentious politics that emphasizes contestation between incumbents and challengers and the mechanisms through which they are affected by transnational forces. Second, based on this conceptual framework it outlines six types of aid influence over a developing-country political settlement, illustrating donor tendencies to support continuity or change. Third, it investigates the ethical implications of donor influence over political settlements, identifying the types of intervention favoured by consequentialist and non-consequentialist calculations. Finally, the paper concludes by asking whether current debates in the aid community have fully come to terms with the responsibility that derives from agency in the contentious politics of inclusive development.

Paper short abstract:

To gain analytical value, political settlements need to be conceptualised as complex social systems; as such they abstain the liberal external interventionism along the inclusive institutionalism paradigm, and open up to the 'local turn' in state- and peacebuilding.

Paper long abstract:

While political settlements research has not yet been able to develop a commonly agreed concept about scale and scope of the concept, there is widespread agreement about the notion of inclusive institutions. Such an agreement, however, resembles old practices of neoclassical institution building, and implies the severe risk of political settlements just becoming the reframing of well-known, worn-out paths of development interventions that already have been proven to fail. Aiming to challenge this view of inclusive institutionalism, this paper argues that political settlements are best understood as complex social systems. Such a perspective has severe consequences, as it rejects any linear causalities. Instead of thinking about how to design more inclusive institutions, working with political settlements has to utilise a self-reflective approach based on dialogical learning, and should focus on working on enabling conditions for the transformation of potentially violent conflict. In doing so, such an approach links up with the current 'local turn' in peacebuilding, and the respective ideas of 'peace formation' and 'sustaining peace'.

Paper short abstract:

This article aims to (1) provide a clearer conceptual distinction between the ‘configuration of power’ and the ‘set of institutions’ that distribute sources of power. (2) to compare three leading political settlement typologies in regards to their conceptual clarity and empirical operationalisation.

Paper long abstract:

Political settlement analysis promises to explain divergent development pathways of countries where other paradigms have failed, but it has yet to consolidate a unified understanding of its core concept and overcome doubts whether it can be used for rigorous empirical research. This article compares three examples of political settlement analysis application and examines the merits and weaknesses of the typologies and empirical operationalisation offered by them. It finds important progress in recent scholarship but concludes that more is needed to clarify dimensions of settlements and avoid that measurement efforts inadvertently resort to outcomes of interest as proxy indicators, rendering empirical falsification of causal claims impossible. To promote this cause this paper provides a clearer distinction between the concepts of 'configuration of power' and the ensuing 'set of institutions' that distribute sources of power.

Paper short abstract:

The political settlements approach provides important insights into the drivers of stability and conflict in developing countries. The policy implications are at variance with the security, justice and jobs suggested by mainstream institutional and governance analyses of security and development.

Paper long abstract:

Developing countries are vulnerable to outbreaks of violence. Any analysis of violence and insecurity in specific cases has to be consistent with an analysis of the political and economic dynamics of 'normal' developing countries. However, many of the dominant ideas that inform the international policy debate on conflict and security are based on an ahistorical analysis of how a social order is constructed in developing countries. The policy prescriptions that emanate from mainstream approaches support policies promoting 'good governance', investments in security and in employment generation (as in the WDR 2011). The political settlements approach in this paper suggests that the legitimacy and stability of the state in developing countries depend on providing enough for the economic and political expectations of the general population subject to the important constraint of providing significant informal rents to critical organizers and constituencies which define the ruling coalition and a sustainable strategy for dealing with powerful organizations outside the coalition. Political settlements defined in this way are vulnerable and can be suddenly upset by factors which disrupt the equilibrium. For instance changes in the perceived bargaining power of groups can result in more intense conflicts to change the distribution of benefits. When this happens, conflict can escalate and the reproducibility of the system can be threatened. In extreme cases, the ruling coalition can break down and conflict and violence can spiral to a high level till a new political settlement emerges. This approach suggests different causes and therefore plausible responses to emerging conflicts.

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Paper short abstract:

This paper offers entry points through which armed group actors in the Democratic Republic of the Congo can be considered in political settlements, and argues that post-conflict political settlements which do not include such groups are likely to fail to be effective.

Paper long abstract:

Despite more than a decade of democracy-promotion and peacebuilding in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the eastern provinces of North and South Kivu contain more than 70 armed groups. While reasons for the failure to prevent violence are numerous, emerging research has shown that often peacebuilding interventions in the region tend to focus on narrow technical goals, without appreciating the wider political context within which interventions take place, and the unintended consequences that these interventions themselves can have on conflict dynamics. The political settlements approach - focussing on the formal and informal negotiations, bargains, pacts and agreements made between elite actors - has gained increasing traction in developmental thinking in recent years. Indeed, a growing number of policymakers now subscribe to the idea that inclusive political settlements are required for positive developmental change. Yet, in the eastern DRC many armed groups are not considered to be among the elite actors worth negotiating with when trying to broker political settlements. As a result solutions to dealing with the armed group problem tend to be military rather than political. This paper considers the Congolese armed groups phenomenon through a political settlements lens, to try and understand these actors as both products of a wider political malaise, and as political actors in their own right. In doing so, the paper offers entry points through which armed group actors can be considered in political settlements, and argues that post-conflict political settlements which do not include such groups are likely to fail to be effective.

Paper short abstract:

This paper examines how elite heterogeneity and the development-orientation of elites, considered as salient features of political settlements in fragile societies, influence the organization and delivery of security by state security organizations.

Paper long abstract:

Since 2014, Clingendael's Conflict Research Unit (CRU) runs a research project that examines, through comparative case study work, two exploratory hypotheses on how particular characteristics of the political settlement in fragile societies influence the organization and delivery of security by state security institutions:

• Conflict prone-societies with more heterogeneous elites will tend to, formally or informally, organize state security institutions along more factional lines than societies with more homogeneous elites. This perpetuates elite fragmentation, aggravates inter-elite competition in times of crisis and reduces the prospects for more citizen-oriented security provision despite the positive incentive of inter-elite competition;

• Elites that are developmentally-oriented in how they use state power logically pay more attention to providing security to their citizens but will still use state security organizations to maintain the political status quo, associated political power and their own interests. A consequence is that political stasis is likely to limit development potential unless elite/leadership succession crisis can be handled peacefully.

The project has so far conducted two case studies (Lebanon and Ethiopia). This paper intends to synthesize their findings and enrich them with theoretical concepts as well as evidence from the wider conflict and development literature to develop an initial evidence base and a more detailed research agenda.

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Paper short abstract:

Political Settlements in fragile states require accommodation of interests of powerful interest groups, which will be challenged when pursuing pathways out of fragility. This paper examines lessons from experience on navigating risks and enhancing conflict sensitivity during such transition processes.

Paper long abstract:

Political Settlements in fragile states require accommodation of interests of powerful interest groups, at least some of which will be challenged when pursuing pathways out of fragility. This paper critically examines the tensions between efforts to identify and pursue pathways out of fragility and sustaining political settlements in conflict-affected or conflict-prone countries, and the politics of how assessments of such dilemmas influence or legitimate decisions about priorities for tackling drivers of fragility - by governing elites and by aid donors and other international actors. The risks are real: most fragile states are vulnerable to (re-) emergence of substantial armed violence facilitated by at least some participants in the existing political settlement. Drawing from experience in a range of contexts, including Liberia, Kenya, Myanmar and Cambodia, we demonstrate that local political-economic elites have proved to be skilled in instrumentalising such concerns for their own interests in their engagements with aid donors. We argue that better use of conflict sensitivity approaches can help to inform strategy and phasing of measures to tackle fragility in order to mitigate risks of violent challenges to political settlements.

Paper short abstract:

This paper argues that Ugandan involvement in internal and external wars across Central-East Africa is driven by an internationalized political settlement between cross-national ethnic and military leaders. It sheds new light on neglected international dimensions of political settlement theory.

Paper long abstract:

For the past two decades, Central-East Africa has been a hotbed of geo-political instability. Conflict in Uganda, Rwanda, DRC, and now Burundi has repeatedly threatened peace and stability in the region. Uganda, in particular, has acted as a flashpoint in numerous internal and external wars, including participation in the overthrow of Rwandan and DRC governments. Drawing on insights from political settlement theory, we argue that Ugandan involvement in these wars is driven by pressure to uphold an evolving internationalized political settlement between cross-national ethnic and military leaders. This political settlement is both antecedent and product of episodic appointments of internationalized military personnel—that is, martial races or privileged ethnicities that are, in large part, extra-territorial in origin. We develop this argument by tracing the historical evolution of Uganda's military establishment since independence. Our findings suggest that Ugandan leaders have strategically recruited internationalized military personnel to shore up the military's political reliability and protect against state failure. This ethno-political military calculus is exemplified by the close relationship with Tanzanian elites under Obote, the inclusion of Sudanese and Palestinians soldiers under Amin, and the alliance with Rwandan exiles under Museveni. But, in doing so, Ugandan leaders have become beholden to these groups and have therefore been obligated to provide military support in extra-territorial skirmishes throughout the region. Overall, these findings shed new light on previously under-theorized international dimensions of political settlement theory and also offer important insights as to why Central-East Africa continues to be embroiled in conflict.

Paper short abstract:

This paper analyses the 'political settlement' underpinning a levy collected from Philippine coconut producers. It shows how the approach can be used to assess the developmental potential of specific market-attenuating state interventions ostensibly designed to foster productive expansion.

Paper long abstract:

This paper examines through the lens of 'political settlements' one of the most iconic cases of corruption allegedly perpetuated in the Philippines under President Ferdinand Marcos: the collection of levies from coconut producers and the subversion of their uses to purportedly benefit presidential cronies. These levies were collected from among the poorest producers but most important agro-export sectors in the Philippines. They were collected not only to ostensibly enhance the sector's productive capacity, but also in such a way that included the voice of the leading sectoral organisation in the mobilisation of the levies. By deploying the lens of 'political settlements', it examines the extent to which inclusion of coconut producers' voice shaped the distribution of benefits associated with levies. Since levies were mobilised for use in investments with continuing value, processes of bargaining for a right to these benefits continued long after Marcos had been deposed from power in 1986. It examines the evolution of the associated political settlement during and after the Marcos period: how it was regulated, who benefited and how. This paper will show that the deployment of a sectoral approach in the exploration of 'political settlements' enables the analysis of coconut levies beyond the story of Marcosian plunder, which dominates analysis of these levies. The application of this lens reveals a view of the conditions in political economy that circumscribe the possibilities for economic development, and from which inferences can be drawn about the political challenges of long-run economic transformation in the Philippines.

Paper short abstract:

Colombian inclusive businesses around internal conflict face implementation barriers, which are analysed using resource-dependence and institutional theories, with the aim of categorizing strategies and understanding motives that have guided their selection by organisations to manage the barriers.

Paper long abstract:

Engaging with businesses to alleviate poverty has gained prominence in development agendas; this ranges from the Millennium Development Goals to the current Sustainable Development Goals promoting 'inclusive and sustainable economic growth and inclusive and sustainable industrialization'. In these scenarios, inclusive business models - those involving the bottom of the pyramid under a value chain approach - appear to be an instrument to achieve those goals. The Colombian experience around internal armed conflict provides cases of inclusive businesses involving actors who face violence, such as: displaced populations, demobilized ex-combatants, and communities of peace, etc. Based on the author's doctoral fieldwork, this paper aims to explore preliminary results about the main barriers faced by implementers when involving actors of conflict in inclusive business; it also aims to identify the strategies to overcome barriers related to violence using the foundations of resource-dependence theory. In addition, the paper performs an analysis under institutional theory to examine the motives that guide the selection of strategies adopted by organisations to manage these barriers. In exploring the implementation barriers, it is expected that insight may be obtained about the influence that the conditions of vulnerability - produced by the violence context - seem to have on the implementation of inclusive businesses. In understanding the emergence of strategies that go beyond managerial practices, tackling social and institutional issues related to conflict, it is suggested that the process of overcoming barriers will contribute to peace building processes by tackling the causes of conflict and developing conditions for its alleviation.

Paper short abstract:

This paper will illustrate how political settlements in Lebanon contribute to political crises. It will problematize the discourse on inclusion and scrutinise how elite inclusion is advancing instability, and discuss how international actors can support alternative political settlements ‘from below’.

Paper long abstract:

Political settlements have played a central role in Lebanon since its independence from France in 1943. The so-called National Pact of 1943 established the consociational, elite-dominated, power sharing system based on sectarianism, which still persists today, in order to disperse tensions between Muslim and Christian. However, the National Pact arguably failed to prevent the outbreak of the civil war. The political settlement established after the war in 1989 led to the genesis of a state riddle by clientelism and rampant corruption in which warlords and new business elites were integrated side by side traditional elites into the post-war order, enabling them to share the "spoils of truce" (Leenders, 2013). This revived power arrangement continued peacefully until the end of the Syrian occupation in 2005. Since then Lebanon has witnessed several political crises culminating in war, internal violence, and an almost constant political deadlock. Political settlements involving the post-war elite in 2008 and 2012 sought to diffuse these crises by ensured continuation of the power sharing arrangements, but arguably leading to the next crisis. Anti-government protests since 2015 challenging political elites could now ead to the emergence of a settlement 'from below'.

This paper will, thus, illustrate how exactly political settlements evolved in Lebanon, and how they contribute to the current political situation. To this end, this contribution will problematize the discourse on inclusion in political settlements and scrutinise how elite inclusion is advancing instability in Lebanon. It will also discuss how international actors could support alternative political settlements 'from below'.

Paper short abstract:

Since 1994 Malawi's political elite have crafted a settlement at critical junctures that has guaranteed them access to rents and power and has resulted in peace and national underdevelopment.

Paper long abstract:

After a brief analysis of Malawi's political elite, the argument is made that since 1994, the elite has constructed its settlement in a way that has generally benefited them politically and economically as a whole and individually, has established a social contract with the population that generally maintains enough services to sustain social conciliation, has created a workable though less-than-democratic governance arrangement, and has done all of this while not establishing a policy environment conducive to national economic development.

The settlement has been crafted through a series of 'critical junctures', when it was tested and shaped by politicians seeking to optimise their benefits but willing or forced to compromise to maintain a balance of power and peace. The paper then focuses on four critical junctures since 1994, where institutions were laid down or further entrenched, which affected rent generation and management, economic policy-making and implementation, and national governance.

While a tipping point has been reached on these and a number of other occasions, sometimes resulting in bloodshed and threatening major unrest, a new elite bargain has been struck in time to avoid major disturbances and afterwards a slightly different arrangement has been established, with modified, tacit norms guiding marginally shifted power relations and elite behaviours, including how the ruling class treats ordinary Malawians, extracts and dispense rents, and approaches national economic issues. No significant paradigm shift has resulted in more than 20 years that has promised or portends nationwide developmentalism.