P38
The end of the commodity super-cycle and its implications for oil- and mineral-exporting countries

Convenors:
Jakob Engel (University of Oxford)
Rebecca Engebretsen (ETH Zurich)
Cornelia Staritz (Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE))
Juan Gutierrez (University of Oxford)
Location:
Memorial Room (Queens College)
Session slots:
2

Short abstract:

The commodity super-cycle (2000-14) played a pivotal role in shaping the politics, institutions and development strategies of resource-rich developing countries. Given the current low-price context, the panel seeks to explore how institutions are adapting to this "new normal".

Long abstract:

The commodity super-cycle of the past fifteen years has played a pivotal role in shaping developmental strategies and economic prospects throughout the developing world. Yet the recent decline in commodity prices has (once again) exposed the inadequacy of growth models failing to take into account the volatility of global commodity markets. With growing economic instability and diminishing fiscal space, numerous producing countries are struggling to adjust to this weakened position. The panel aims to engage with the 'new normal' for producer countries, focusing particularly on how oil- and mineral-rich developing countries are adapting to the current low-price environment, as well as examining the suitability of subnational, national and regional institutions in addressing these changes. Papers, including country case studies and comparative analyses (small- and large-N), responding to the following questions are particularly welcome: • How have pro- and counter-cyclical governance measures adopted over the past decade prepared resource-rich developing countries for the present low-price environment and for the high volatility of most commodity markets? • What limitations and opportunities does the current price decline have for the effectiveness of diversification and structural transformation strategies in commodity-producing countries? • What does the new low price context mean for governments' scope to renegotiate oil/mining contracts? Finally, given the significant impact the recent super-cycle has had on the functioning of global commodity markets, as well as in greatly increasing the links between commodity and financial markets, papers engaging with the role of the super-cycle on financial sector development in developing countries are also welcome.